Economic Policy on Rational Americahttps://RationalAmerica.com/tags/economic-policy/Recent content in Economic Policy on Rational AmericaHugoen-usSun, 06 Sep 2026 09:00:00 -04007 Powerful Ways Business Cycles Expose the Limits of Rational Expectationshttps://RationalAmerica.com/posts/7-powerful-ways-business-cycles-expose-the-limits/Sun, 06 Sep 2026 09:00:00 -0400https://RationalAmerica.com/posts/7-powerful-ways-business-cycles-expose-the-limits/<p>Last fall, a senior economist at a major US bank told clients to brace for a hard landing. October data arrived softer than expected, unemployment inched upward, and the financial press anointed him a prophet. Then fourth-quarter GDP printed at 3.1%. The same forecast suddenly looked like a haircut on a bald man. Does that make the economist a fool? Not at all. It makes him a human being trying to model an economy built by other human beings.</p>