https://RationalAmerica.com/tags/forecasting/Recent content in Forecasting on Rational AmericaHugoen-usSun, 06 Sep 2026 09:00:00 -0400https://RationalAmerica.com/posts/stop-trusting-gut-feelings--embrace-rational-econ/Sun, 06 Sep 2026 09:00:00 -0400https://RationalAmerica.com/posts/stop-trusting-gut-feelings--embrace-rational-econ/<p>The board sat stone-faced while the chief economist defended another forecast. It was the third big miss in eighteen months, and the excuses were wearing thin. The &ldquo;model&rdquo; behind the headline number, once you scratched the surface, turned out to be a confident opinion wearing a spreadsheet. That scene repeats in boardrooms everywhere.</p> <p>Stop trusting gut feelings. Start building rational econometric forecasting frameworks that can survive first contact with new data.</p>